Austin housing continues to rebalance as supply builds, demand softens, and median prices settle deeper below the 2022 peak.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for December 05 2025.
The Austin real estate market is closing the first week of December with a clear message. Inventory remains elevated, buyer activity is slower than last year, and pricing continues to reflect the aftershocks of the 2022 peak. For anyone following the Austin housing forecast or looking for a realistic view of where the Austin real estate market is today, the numbers highlight a market that is still working through an extended correction phase. Active listings now sit at 14,509, which is a 14.1% increase over last year and well below the midyear high of 18,146 recorded at the end of June. That level of supply continues to shape pricing, negotiation leverage and buyer behavior across the region.
A defining feature of today’s austin real estate conditions is the pressure visible in listing adjustments. A total of 57.4% of all active listings have had at least one price drop. This confirms that sellers are still having to reposition their listings to meet conservative buyer expectations. Price sensitivity remains high, and homes that were aggressively priced in previous months have been forced to correct. By contrast, pending activity remains remarkably stable. At 3,758 pendings, the market is essentially unchanged from last year’s 3,760. This highlights that demand has not disappeared, but it is operating more cautiously and absorbing supply at a slower pace.
New listing momentum remains strong, with 47,870 new listings recorded from January to November. This is 5.5% higher year over year and 23.2% above the long term average. At the same time, cumulative pending sales during that same period reached 41,155, which is 0.7% lower than last year but still 7.5% above normal trends. The gap between new listings and pending contracts widened to 6,715 for the year. This spread is one of the clearest indicators of imbalance in the Austin housing market because it shows that supply is growing faster than demand can absorb it.
The Activity Index brings this imbalance into sharper focus. The overall market is running at 20.6%, which is down from 22.8% last year. New construction is performing significantly higher at 27.23%, while the resale market is well behind at 17.56%. Only one city is experiencing equilibrium level demand in the resale category. The overwhelming majority of the region sits in the softening, contraction or crisis phases. This means slower sales, higher inventory, and an environment where price corrections continue to be the norm rather than the exception.
Another pressure indicator in this austin market update is the New Listing to Pending Ratio. For the month, the ratio is at 0.92, meaning almost one new listing is arriving for every pending sale. The long term average is 0.82, and today’s annual ratio stands at 0.73. Any value above historical norms signals a market taking on supply faster than it can clear it. This ratio is one of the most useful early warning metrics because it highlights momentum before pricing shifts occur.
The Months of Inventory metric reinforces the message of oversupply. Austin sits at 5.16 months today, up from 4.48 months a year ago. That is a 15.3% increase in available supply. When measured against resale-specific categories, the picture becomes even clearer. Only 7% of cities fall into Seller Acceleration, and only 23% fall into Seller Edge. A full 46% of the region’s markets fall into Buyer Advantage or Buyer Control. This reflects rising inventory levels and expanding opportunities for negotiation. In the highest supply areas, inventory exceeds 10 months, and several zip codes exceed 12 months. These conditions naturally create downward pressure on prices and longer days on market.
Austin’s pricing data also confirms the long arc of the correction. The average sold price for November closed at $566,966, which is well below the May 2022 peak of $681,939. That represents a 16.86% drop or a decline of roughly $115,000 from the top of the market. The median sold price for November came in at $428,638, down sharply from the $550,000 peak. This is a 22.07% decline representing a loss of $121,000 from peak to present. These are significant corrections that reflect the impact rising mortgage rates and oversupply have had on the Austin real estate forecast.
A useful long term perspective comes from tracking the median sold price compared to the same month three years earlier. Today the reading is at negative 6.82%, which shows that the market has not only corrected from its peak but has also begun to undercut its pre-boom trajectory. When applying Austin’s historic 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.777%, the median price of $428,638 would take 68 months to return to an equivalent of the prior $551,101 peak. This projected recovery timeline highlights how far pricing has stretched from sustainable long term growth levels.
Sales volume also reflects this cooling trend. The Austin area recorded 1,969 November sales, contributing to a cumulative total of 27,695 sales from January through November. This is a decline of 4% year over year but still 7% above long term averages. However, when adjusting sales volume for population growth, the numbers reveal more stress. Only 1,081 homes have sold per 100,000 residents in 2025, which is 21.1% below historical norms. This metric captures the real impact of affordability constraints. Even though the population has grown significantly over the last decade, the share of residents transacting in real estate remains historically low.
The absorption rate sits at 15.34% compared to the long term average of 31.64%. This is one of the most important demand-side metrics because it measures the proportion of inventory being sold. At just over 15%, the market is moving at half its typical pace. A healthy seller’s market would run above 30%. The current absorption rate confirms that the Austin housing market remains firmly tilted toward buyers.
The Market Flow Score adds one final layer of clarity. Today’s score is 5.32 on a normalized scale of 0 to 10, while the historical average is 6.58. This score blends four critical efficiency metrics, including turnover rates and absorption signals. A declining score represents slower market momentum. With today’s reading well below average, the data confirms that the Austin real estate market continues to operate in a muted, supply heavy environment.
Taken together, the December 5 numbers create a clear pattern. Inventory is rising faster than demand. Most submarkets are in softening or contraction phases. Pricing remains well below the 2022 peak. Affordability challenges continue to suppress transaction volume. And long term recovery is likely to be gradual rather than sharp. For buyers, this environment offers more selection, more time and more leverage. For sellers, strategic pricing and realistic expectations remain essential. For investors, the medium term opportunity remains tied to carefully selecting assets in zip codes where inventory pressure is lower and long term absorption trends are stronger. For agents, the data reinforces the importance of market education and pricing strategy over simple optimism.
